‘Ab Ki Baar 400 Paar’ Seems Attainable for NDA, Predict Several Exit Polls
New Delhi: Throughout this election season, the BJP maintained its ambitious goal of securing 400 Lok Sabha seats for the NDA, despite continuous ridicule from the opposition. According to three exit polls, this goal might be within reach for the ruling party.
While two of these polls provide ranges with upper limits slightly above 400, News 24-Today’s Chanakya forecasts a total of 400 seats for the NDA. This prediction comes with a margin of error of 15 seats, making the expected range between 385 and 415 seats.
Similarly, India TV-CNX predicts a range of 371-401 seats, suggesting the NDA could surpass the 400-seat target if the upper limit is reached. India Today-Axis My India estimates a range of 361-401 seats.
Cautionary Note: Exit polls often fail to accurately predict outcomes.
In the 2019 elections, the NDA secured 352 seats, with the BJP winning 303 seats independently. If Prime Minister Narendra Modi secures a third consecutive term, it would be a historic achievement, and the party’s campaign efforts would be validated even if the NDA reaches the lower end of these projections.
A minimum tally of 361 seats, as predicted by India Today-Axis My India, would indicate an improvement in each successive election, suggesting that anti-incumbency sentiment is not significantly affecting the NDA. This would also highlight PM Narendra Modi’s continued popularity.
The opposition INDIA Alliance, which claimed on Saturday that it would win 295 constituencies, has been forecasted to secure 107 seats (with a margin of plus or minus 11) by Today’s Chanakya, 109-139 seats by CNX, and 131-166 seats by Axis My India.
Uttar Pradesh, holding 80 Lok Sabha seats, remains the most crucial state in every election. In 2019, the BJP won 62 seats here, despite an alliance between the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party. This time, the Samajwadi Party is allied with Congress, and all three polls predict the BJP will increase its tally in the state.
News 24-Today’s Chanakya predicts 68 seats for the BJP (with a margin of plus or minus 7), India Today-Axis My India estimates 67-72 seats, and India TV-CNX projects 70-74 seats for the party.
NDA Set to Surpass 2019 Performance in South, Exit Polls Suggest
New Delhi: Exit polls indicate that the BJP-led NDA will outperform its 2019 results in southern India. Notably, the BJP is predicted to secure more seats than the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal. According to Axis My India, the BJP might win 26-31 of the state’s 42 seats, a significant gain for the ruling party.
Tamil Nadu Sees BJP Boost After Modi’s Push: Exit Polls
Exit polls suggest the BJP-led NDA could win up to seven Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu, a notable increase for a state where the BJP has previously struggled. The India TV-CNX exit poll is the most optimistic, projecting five to seven seats. India Today-Axis My India forecasts two to four seats, while Jan Ki Baat predicts five seats.
Other exit polls, including ABP News-C Voter, India News-D Dynamic, and TV9 Bharatvarsh-Polstrat, also predict at least one seat for the NDA in Tamil Nadu. News Nation projects two seats, and Republic Bharat-Matrize forecasts one seat.
BJP’s Strategy and Alliances in Tamil Nadu
In the 2019 elections, the BJP, in alliance with AIADMK, faced a crushing defeat by the DMK-Congress coalition, which won 38 of the 39 seats. This election, the BJP has fielded candidates in 23 seats, forming alliances with nine regional parties, including S Ramadoss’ Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), which is contesting 10 seats.
Former AIADMK leader O Panneerselvam, now with the NDA, is running as an independent candidate from Ramanathapuram with BJP support.
Significance for BJP and PM Modi
The exit polls, if accurate, would represent a significant boost for PM Modi and the BJP in Tamil Nadu. The Prime Minister has focused extensively on Tamil Nadu, making numerous visits to the state during the campaign. The BJP is optimistic that Modi’s efforts in the South will translate into votes, crucial for achieving the ‘abki baar, 400 paar’ target.
Congress-Led INDIA Bloc Projections
Conversely, the Congress-led INDIA alliance, including the ruling DMK in Tamil Nadu, is expected to win the majority of the state’s seats. India TV-CNX predicts 22-26 seats for the alliance, while ABP News-C Voter gives it 37-39 seats. Other exit polls, like India Today-Axis My India and Jan Ki Baat, project similar outcomes.
Conclusion
Overall, exit polls suggest the BJP is set for a significant win, potentially securing a third consecutive term for PM Modi. However, the BJP may fall short of its ambitious target of over 400 seats with its allies. The opposition INDIA bloc, formed to counter the BJP, is projected to perform below its expectations.
The aggregate of exit polls indicates the NDA will secure 367 seats, with BJP alone gaining 327 seats, while the Congress is expected to win 52 seats.
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