Modi Poised for Third Term but Must Rely on Coalition Partners to Govern
Narendra Modi has declared victory in India’s 2024 elections for his National Democratic Alliance (NDA), even as preliminary results indicate his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to fall short of an outright majority.
Despite needing alliance partners to secure his third consecutive term, Modi celebrated the “world’s biggest victory” at the BJP’s headquarters in New Delhi. The election saw participation from approximately 640 million voters.
The NDA is projected to win over 272 seats required for a majority, yet the BJP alone is expected to secure fewer seats than its 2019 tally of 303. Modi had previously predicted a sweeping victory with over 400 seats.
Opposition Response and Coalition Dynamics
Rahul Gandhi, leader of the opposition Congress party, thanked voters for “saving the Indian constitution,” and praised their resilience against perceived threats to democracy.
The Election Commission announced that the NDA had secured 286 seats, surpassing the majority threshold but falling short of forecasts. Modi had pre-emptively claimed victory on Tuesday, despite the BJP’s diminished seat count compared to 2019.
Modi Faces New Political Challenges
Modi acknowledged the electoral success as a testament to the strength of democracy, affirming that the NDA would form the government for a third term. However, the Congress party framed the results as a “moral and political loss” for Modi.
Political Analysis: Modi’s Most Pressured Term
Analysts predict that ruling within a coalition will significantly constrain Modi’s governance, particularly in addressing concerns about rising Islamophobia and democratic erosion.
The Election Commission’s impartiality was questioned, as it did not penalize Modi or other top leaders for inflammatory rhetoric during the campaign. Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar emphasized the non-discriminatory approach, treating leaders from both BJP and Congress equally.
Media and Public Discourse
John Oliver’s critical episode on Modi, highlighting uncritical media coverage and rising anti-Muslim sentiment, was made unavailable in India, sparking discussions on censorship.
Economic Implications of a Slimmer Victory
The BJP’s manifesto aims to elevate India to the third-largest global economy. Experts suggest that Modi will face challenges balancing coalition demands for welfare policies with economic reforms needed to attract investment and generate employment.
Analysts anticipate potential delays in investor-friendly reforms, such as labor laws, due to coalition dynamics and a stronger opposition presence.
Practical Measures During Vote Counting
As vote counting proceeded in New Delhi, officials took precautions against the heat, with temperatures reaching up to 41C. Air-conditioned facilities and evaporative coolers were provided to ensure the comfort of workers and security personnel.
Future Coalition Negotiations
Should the BJP fall short of a majority, it will likely depend heavily on its allies, who are expected to leverage significant influence in policymaking and government formation. This scenario marks uncharted territory for both India and Modi, who has led the BJP-majority government since 2014.
Conclusion
The 2024 election results indicate a complex political landscape for Narendra Modi and the BJP, necessitating coalition governance and careful negotiation with alliance partners. The coming term will test Modi’s leadership amidst heightened political pressure and economic challenges.
